Dynamics of Price Growth of Curly Red Chili and Red Chili in Kolaka District

Lukman Hakim(1*), Kartomo Kartomo(2), Nursalam Nursalam(3),

(1) Universitas Sembilanbelas November Kolaka
(2) Universitas Sembilanbelas November Kolaka
(3) Universitas Sembilanbelas November Kolaka
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


This study aims to: 1) Identify the price data pattern of Curly Red Chili and red chilies in Kolaka Regency; 2) Obtain the best time series forecasting method for forecasting the price of Curly Red Chili and ordinary red chilies in Kolaka Regency; 3) Get a forecast for the price of Curly Red Chili and regular red chilies for the coming year. This type of research is descriptive quantitative, the source of the data in this study is secondary data obtained from the office of industry and trade, Kolaka district. The data analysis method used is the time series forecasting method.The results showed that: 1) The results of the identification of data patterns on the plot of price data for Curly Red Chili and common red chilies in Kolaka Regency in 2015-2019 obtained a seasonal pattern. 2) The results of the application of the time series forecasting method for the price of curly red chilies, obtained the best time series forecasting method, namely the box-jenkins method of the SARIMA (1,0,0) (2,0,0) 12 model with the smallest MSE value, namely MSE = 41,534 590 While for the price of ordinary red chilies, the best time series forecasting method is the box-jenkins method of the SARIMA (1,0,0) (1,0,0) 12 model with the smallest MSE value, namely MSE = 44,764,512. 3) The results of forecasting the price of Curly Red Chili using the box-jenkins method SARIMA (1,0,0) (2,0,0) 12 with the help of the MINITAB 19 program is the highest price of IDR 47,355.4 / Kg which occurred in August 2020 and the lowest price is IDR 23,169 / Kg which occurred in January 2020, while the average price of Curly Red Chili in 2020 is IDR 32,487.3 / Kg. While the results of forecasting the price of ordinary red chilies using the box-jenkins method with the SARIMA (1,0,0) (1,0,0) 12 model with the help of the MINITAB 19 program is the highest price of Rp. 32,967.8 / Kg which occurred in August. 2020 and the lowest price is IDR 16,756.4 / Kg which occurred in December 2020, while the average price of ordinary red chili in 2020 is IDR 23,346.27 / Kg.

Keywords


time series forecasting, price of red chilies, curly red chili, red chilies, box-jenkins ARIMA-SARIMA.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Akhmad, Z. 2007. “Peramalan Dan Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Fluktuasi Harga Beras Ir Ii Tingkat Konsumen Di Beberapa Kota Besar Di Pulau Jawa Dan Bali (Kasus Pengendalian Harga Beras Pada Badan Ketahanan Pangan Nasional)â€. Fakultas Pertanian. Institut Pertanian Bogor. Bogor.

Alex, M. 2007. “Peramalan Dan Faktor-Faktor Penentu Fluktuasi Harga Cabai Merah Di Enam Kota Besar Di Jawa – Baliâ€. Fakultas Pertanian. Institut Pertanian Bogor. Bogor.

Badan Pusat Statistik 2015. Outlook cabai 2016. Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian, Sekretariat Jenderal, Jakarta.

Dinas Perindustrian Dan Perdagangan Kabupaten Kolaka, 2019. Harga Cabai Merah Kabupaten Kolaka. Kolaka: Diperindag

Farid, M., & Subekti, N. A. (2012). Tinjauan Terhadap Produksi, Konsumsi, Distribusi Dan Dinamika Harga Cabe Di Indonesia.

Irawan, Bambang . 2007. Fluktuasi Harga , Transmisi Harga dan Marjin PemasaranSayuran dan Buah. Analisis kebijakan Pertanian vol 5 no 4 : 358-373. Pusat Analisis Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian, Bogor.

Outlook cabai 2016. Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian, Sekretariat Jenderal, Jakarta.

Pertanian, Kementerian. 2015. Outlook cabai 2016. Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian, Sekretariat Jenderal, Jakarta.

Rukmana, Rahmat. 1994. Usaha Tani Cabai Hibrida Sistem Mulsa Plastik. Kanisius. Yogyakarta.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.31327/aj.v3i2.1367

Article Metrics

Abstract view : 827 times
PDF - 504 times

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2020 lukman hakim

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Agribusiness Journal Jl. Pemuda, No. 339 Kolaka, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia - 93517 ONLINE ISSN: 2548-2211 PRINT ISSN: 2548-379X Mobile: +6282291722662 WA: +6282291722662 E-mail: journalagribusiness@gmail.com

Universitas Sembilanbelas November Kolaka, USN Scientific Journal Publisher (Hardcopy Provider) Jl. Pemuda, No. 339 Kolaka, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia - 93517 E-mail: info@usnsj.com

 

Agribusiness Journal licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License